ITM Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 21.12 | 23.14 | -2.00 |
| Wellington | 11.86 | 6.93 | 4.90 |
| Auckland | 10.86 | 9.02 | 1.80 |
| Counties Manukau | 4.08 | 4.36 | -0.30 |
| Waikato | 2.13 | 5.25 | -3.10 |
| Tasman | -0.16 | -6.29 | 6.10 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -1.94 | -6.72 | 4.80 |
| Taranaki | -3.03 | 3.92 | -7.00 |
| Otago | -4.82 | -4.44 | -0.40 |
| Bay of Plenty | -5.20 | -1.96 | -3.20 |
| Southland | -7.78 | -11.86 | 4.10 |
| Northland | -9.69 | -8.26 | -1.40 |
| North Harbour | -9.73 | -7.43 | -2.30 |
| Manawatu | -10.98 | -8.97 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Manawatu | Sep 25 | 72 – 7 | 35.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Northland vs. Tasman | Sep 26 | 13 – 28 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Wellington | Sep 27 | 14 – 19 | -5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Otago vs. Southland | Sep 28 | 32 – 38 | 10.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Taranaki | Sep 28 | 12 – 6 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Sep 28 | 39 – 19 | -10.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour | Sep 29 | 55 – 10 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 29 | 30 – 31 | -5.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasman vs. Waikato | Oct 02 | Tasman | 2.20 |
| 2 | Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 03 | Hawke’s Bay | -1.30 |
| 3 | Manawatu vs. Northland | Oct 04 | Manawatu | 3.20 |
| 4 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Oct 05 | Waikato | -2.80 |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Otago | Oct 05 | Otago | -0.40 |
| 6 | Wellington vs. Auckland | Oct 05 | Wellington | 5.50 |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 06 | Canterbury | 21.50 |
| 8 | Taranaki vs. Tasman | Oct 06 | Taranaki | 1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »