Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 4.17 | 4.47 | -0.30 |
| Lions | 2.52 | -1.22 | 3.70 |
| Sharks | 2.51 | 3.24 | -0.70 |
| Cheetahs | -1.73 | -2.74 | 1.00 |
| Blue Bulls | -3.89 | 0.59 | -4.50 |
| Griquas | -5.73 | -6.48 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Sep 13 | 26 – 23 | 3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Sharks | Sep 14 | 24 – 25 | -0.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Western Province | Sep 14 | 18 – 29 | 1.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Province vs. Griquas | Sep 20 | Western Province | 17.40 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Sep 21 | Sharks | 11.70 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Blue Bulls | Sep 21 | Lions | 13.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Your predictions for the first two CurrieCup games in Round6 was scarily accurate – spot on! Pity about the WP v BlueBull game. Margins for Round7 seems wider since it has been a close point difference or draw tournament thus far. Thank you for your models … it assists with my SuperBru predictions and keeps my jaw dropping each week. I’m a true beliver in statistics pointing the way and decisions making forward … both in life and especially at work.
11 years ago
Thanks for the positive comments. The early games for the Currie Cup were very hard to predict, but predictions have been working out a bit better lately. We at Stats Chat are of course true believers when it comes to statistics.
11 years ago