September 10, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 5

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I have now been able to assemble the data for predicting the ITM Cup. The success figures stated below are what would have been achieved had I started predicting in Round 1. The parameters for this season’s predictions were chosen without considering any results from this year and the method is purely algorithmic once the parameters have been chosen.

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 24.16 23.14 1.00
Wellington 10.98 6.93 4.00
Auckland 9.27 9.02 0.20
Counties Manukau 1.52 4.36 -2.80
Waikato 0.84 5.25 -4.40
Tasman -0.03 -6.29 6.30
Taranaki -1.08 3.92 -5.00
Bay of Plenty -3.10 -1.96 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.36 -6.72 2.40
Otago -5.53 -4.44 -1.10
North Harbour -7.65 -7.43 -0.20
Northland -8.08 -8.26 0.20
Manawatu -9.84 -8.97 -0.90
Southland -10.38 -11.86 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 22 – 20 11.00 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 05 18 – 48 -21.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Waikato Sep 06 20 – 16 -8.80 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Otago Sep 06 49 – 16 5.60 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 07 15 – 51 -0.10 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 07 24 – 27 -1.10 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 08 15 – 12 2.20 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 08 10 – 30 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 Taranaki 7.80
2 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 12 Wellington 18.60
3 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 13 Manawatu 5.00
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 13 Tasman -3.10
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 14 Auckland -3.90
6 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 14 Canterbury 34.20
7 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 15 Counties Manukau 7.10
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 8.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Rafiu Dada

    Dear Sir,
    l will like to receive your new posts on rugby and any other sports you may be analysing.
    Thanks for the good work.

    11 years ago

  • avatar
    Rafiu Dada

    Dear Sir,
    Please send me your new post on rugby and any other sports.Thanks for the good work.

    11 years ago

  • avatar
    Willis du Plessis

    Hi David,

    are you doing predictions on the super 15 this year ? It’s starting this weekend in South Africa ?

    Willis

    11 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Yes. Working on them at the moment, but making some methodological changes which are taking a little time.

      11 years ago