NRL Predictions, Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 25, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.75 | 9.73 | 4.00 |
| Roosters | 12.57 | -5.68 | 18.30 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.09 | 4.78 | 4.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.46 | 5.23 | 2.20 |
| Bulldogs | 4.90 | 7.33 | -2.40 |
| Cowboys | 4.81 | 7.05 | -2.20 |
| Sharks | 1.44 | -1.78 | 3.20 |
| Knights | 1.39 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Warriors | -1.95 | -10.01 | 8.10 |
| Titans | -2.06 | -1.85 | -0.20 |
| Panthers | -5.40 | -6.58 | 1.20 |
| Broncos | -5.86 | -1.55 | -4.30 |
| Raiders | -6.11 | 2.03 | -8.10 |
| Dragons | -8.74 | -0.33 | -8.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.68 | -3.71 | -7.00 |
| Eels | -18.37 | -8.82 | -9.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 176 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.36%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Aug 23 | 28 – 20 | 6.82 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Aug 23 | 28 – 12 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 24 | 18 – 34 | 12.05 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 24 | 22 – 24 | 5.99 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Aug 24 | 26 – 6 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 25 | 22 – 36 | -9.87 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Eels | Aug 25 | 64 – 4 | 30.78 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Aug 26 | 32 – 22 | -10.79 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Knights | Aug 30 | Knights | -2.70 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 30 | Rabbitohs | -13.60 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 31 | Warriors | 8.70 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 31 | Bulldogs | 14.80 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Aug 31 | Storm | -0.20 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Sep 01 | Sharks | 1.10 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Titans | Sep 01 | Roosters | 19.10 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Dragons | Sep 02 | Dragons | -5.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »