Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4
This is proving to be an extremely unpredictable competition. The Lions absolutely thrashing the Bulls last weekend has resulted in a rankings jump for the Lions and a drop for the Bulls. Certainly the competition is harder to predict than the Australian NRL which in turn is harder to predict than the Super 15.
Team Ratings for Round 4
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 2.59 | -1.22 | 3.80 |
| Western Province | 2.57 | 4.47 | -1.90 |
| Sharks | 1.99 | 3.24 | -1.20 |
| Cheetahs | -1.54 | -2.74 | 1.20 |
| Blue Bulls | -3.52 | 0.59 | -4.10 |
| Griquas | -4.23 | -6.48 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 9 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Aug 23 | 15 – 18 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Western Province | Aug 24 | 19 – 20 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Lions | Aug 24 | 23 – 62 | 10.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Western Province | Aug 30 | Lions | 7.50 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Griquas | Aug 31 | Cheetahs | 10.20 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Blue Bulls | Aug 31 | Sharks | 13.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hey I also have a similar method for predicting results and yes it is very hard for the Currie Cup. What is your home ground advantage point allocation in this competition? And what is your smoothing constant? I’m using 0.15-0.25 and 3/4 point home ground advantage but still trying to obtain best results.
Lastly how large is your past result data set? Sorry for all the questions but I’m really looking at ways to improve the results. One thing I have done is add/remove a half point per player for their team as national players are called up and returned to the team for or from national duty
11 years ago
I prefer not to give those values.
I have data back to 2009.
Adding or removing a half point per player seems a bit ad hoc to me. Also requires additional information which for past games must be hard to come by.
11 years ago