August 21, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Oh dear, mea culpa. I was alerted by Pierre du Plessis (pduplessis1@gmail.com) that my predictions were a bit bizarre and on checking I found I had entered an incorrect parameter value. Here are the correct predictions for this week. Note that the success probability below is what would have been obtained if I had entered the correct parameter value previously.
 

Team Ratings for Round 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 2.39 4.47 -2.10
Sharks 1.22 3.24 -2.00
Blue Bulls 0.91 0.59 0.30
Cheetahs -0.78 -2.74 2.00
Lions -1.84 -1.22 -0.60
Griquas -4.05 -6.48 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 16 33 – 25 11.10 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 16 15 – 9 13.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 17 15 – 14 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Aug 23 Cheetahs 5.50
2 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 24 Griquas 1.10
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Aug 24 Blue Bulls 10.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Pierre du Plessis

    I am totally confused. The team second last on the log is according to your model the best rated team by a huge margin..You are prediciting that they will win the champions by 20 points. The biggest margin so far was 8 points. ???

    11 years ago