NRL Predictions, Round 23
Unfortunately these are a little late this week. I simply forgot to do them until just now.
Team Ratings for Round 23
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12.36 | -5.68 | 18.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.78 | 4.78 | 5.00 |
| Storm | 9.64 | 9.73 | -0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.24 | 5.23 | 1.00 |
| Bulldogs | 4.30 | 7.33 | -3.00 |
| Knights | 4.10 | 0.44 | 3.70 |
| Cowboys | 2.93 | 7.05 | -4.10 |
| Titans | -0.89 | -1.85 | 1.00 |
| Sharks | -1.04 | -1.78 | 0.70 |
| Warriors | -1.18 | -10.01 | 8.80 |
| Broncos | -3.79 | -1.55 | -2.20 |
| Raiders | -4.98 | 2.03 | -7.00 |
| Dragons | -5.53 | -0.33 | -5.20 |
| Panthers | -8.35 | -6.58 | -1.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.19 | -3.71 | -7.50 |
| Eels | -16.13 | -8.82 | -7.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 09 | 26 – 8 | 5.37 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 09 | 26 – 22 | -1.56 | FALSE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Raiders | Aug 10 | 28 – 22 | 25.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 10 | 14 – 18 | 0.21 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Aug 11 | 27 – 12 | 15.57 | TRUE |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Aug 11 | 26 – 24 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Aug 11 | 4 – 36 | -0.47 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Aug 12 | 16 – 26 | 14.61 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 16 | Rabbitohs | 1.00 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 16 | Broncos | 16.80 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 17 | Bulldogs | -4.80 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Aug 17 | Cowboys | 8.30 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Aug 17 | Dragons | 0.00 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Aug 18 | Warriors | 11.70 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Storm | Aug 18 | Storm | -1.00 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Aug 19 | Roosters | -19.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »