NRL Predictions, Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.71 | -5.68 | 17.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 10.15 | 5.23 | 4.90 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.34 | 4.78 | 3.60 |
| Bulldogs | 5.42 | 7.33 | -1.90 |
| Knights | 5.11 | 0.44 | 4.70 |
| Storm | 1.73 | 9.73 | -8.00 |
| Warriors | -0.25 | -10.01 | 9.80 |
| Raiders | -0.31 | 2.03 | -2.30 |
| Sharks | -1.60 | -1.78 | 0.20 |
| Panthers | -2.57 | -6.58 | 4.00 |
| Cowboys | -2.87 | 7.05 | -9.90 |
| Broncos | -4.69 | -1.55 | -3.10 |
| Dragons | -4.72 | -0.33 | -4.40 |
| Titans | -5.63 | -1.85 | -3.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.35 | -3.71 | -4.60 |
| Eels | -15.19 | -8.82 | -6.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.11%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Jul 26 | 16 – 18 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Jul 26 | 40 – 12 | 24.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Jul 27 | 18 – 22 | 1.11 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 27 | 4 – 32 | -7.11 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Storm | Jul 28 | 30 – 22 | 1.15 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Jul 28 | 38 – 10 | -0.16 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Roosters | Jul 28 | 12 – 28 | 1.36 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 29 | 18 – 36 | -10.74 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Aug 02 | Roosters | -9.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Broncos | Aug 02 | Knights | 14.30 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Aug 03 | Warriors | 5.80 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 03 | Sea Eagles | -19.00 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 03 | Rabbitohs | -8.50 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | Aug 04 | Raiders | 2.50 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 04 | Titans | 7.20 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Aug 05 | Bulldogs | -5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »