July 24, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.98 -5.68 15.70
Rabbitohs 8.06 5.23 2.80
Sea Eagles 7.61 4.78 2.80
Knights 6.84 0.44 6.40
Bulldogs 5.06 7.33 -2.30
Storm 2.41 9.73 -7.30
Panthers 0.24 -6.58 6.80
Raiders -0.82 2.03 -2.80
Warriors -0.94 -10.01 9.10
Cowboys -1.83 7.05 -8.90
Titans -3.54 -1.85 -1.70
Dragons -4.21 -0.33 -3.90
Sharks -4.42 -1.78 -2.60
Broncos -5.73 -1.55 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.63 -3.71 -3.90
Eels -14.83 -8.82 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.76%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 19 14 – 24 -0.23 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Eels Jul 20 14 – 0 19.63 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 20 40 – 0 13.62 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Jul 21 14 – 32 1.88 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Jul 21 38 – 20 15.07 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 22 18 – 22 21.97 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 26 Cowboys 8.40
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 26 Bulldogs 24.40
3 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 27 Dragons 1.10
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jul 27 Rabbitohs -7.10
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 28 Warriors 1.10
6 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -0.20
7 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 28 Knights 1.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 Sea Eagles -10.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »