July 17, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 10.66 5.23 5.40
Roosters 7.34 -5.68 13.00
Sea Eagles 7.32 4.78 2.50
Bulldogs 5.06 7.33 -2.30
Knights 4.85 0.44 4.40
Storm 2.41 9.73 -7.30
Panthers 2.23 -6.58 8.80
Raiders -0.26 2.03 -2.30
Sharks -1.78 -1.78 0.00
Cowboys -1.83 7.05 -8.90
Warriors -1.92 -10.01 8.10
Titans -3.25 -1.85 -1.40
Broncos -5.73 -1.55 -4.20
Wests Tigers -6.65 -3.71 -2.90
Dragons -6.81 -0.33 -6.50
Eels -15.39 -8.82 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.54%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 12 18 – 19 0.94 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 13 10 – 17 -14.66 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jul 14 39 – 0 -0.81 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 15 14 – 34 -0.81 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 19 Warriors -0.20
2 Raiders vs. Eels Jul 20 Raiders 19.60
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 20 Roosters 13.60
4 Panthers vs. Knights Jul 21 Panthers 1.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Jul 21 Sea Eagles 15.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 22 Rabbitohs 22.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »