Benefits numbers context
According to Stuff, Paula Bennett says the number on benefits is down by 10,000 since last year . Whether this is good or bad depends on where they ended up instead (as the story points out) but it is what the Government was attempting.
What the story doesn’t point out is that by MSD numbers there were drops of 10,000 or more in the number on benefits in the years ending June 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 (and over 7000 in the year ending 2012, and over 8000 in the year ending 2003). And that’s as early as the data file goes.
Numbers on benefits have been going down for a long time, with an interruption for the recession, when they (obviously) went up a lot. Some of what we’re seeing now is just economic recovery, some is new rules, some is long-term changes in society. It’s hard to split the credit or blame, but it’s useful to know that a fall of 10,000 in a year isn’t unusual.
Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »
“Numbers on benefits have been going down for a long time, with an interruption for the recession, when they (obviously) went up a lot.”
Numbers on sickness and invalid benefits have been going up for a long time with only very recent levelling off. This growing reliance on incapacity benefits (occurring over the past 30-40 years) is a problem in many developed countries with typically 5-8 percent of the working age population dependent. I’m not seeing that trend reversing yet.
11 years ago
Actually Lindsay, we are seeing that trend reversing. In 2011/2012 8,892 people were granted an Invalid’s Benefit, while 10,623 people cancelled an Invalid’s Benefit. The number of people cancelling an Invalid’s Benefit has been steadily rising, while the number being granted is falling. The only exception is a blip in 2007/2008.
11 years ago
Sorry, I just confused working age grants with the total. The actually numbers are 9,845 people granted a Invalid’s Benefit in 2011/12 and 10,623 people cancelled. Smaller gap, but same trend.
11 years ago
Hi Sam
I conflated sickness and invalid benefits and called them incapacity benefits. The statistical report you have referred to comments, “The number of Sickness Benefits granted remained higher than the number of Sickness Benefits cancelled.”
Put together there is a levelling off.
11 years ago