Super 15 Predictions, Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.38 | 9.03 | 0.40 |
| Bulls | 6.14 | 2.55 | 3.60 |
| Brumbies | 4.18 | -1.06 | 5.20 |
| Chiefs | 3.07 | 6.98 | -3.90 |
| Stormers | 2.55 | 3.34 | -0.80 |
| Sharks | 2.29 | 4.57 | -2.30 |
| Waratahs | 1.62 | -4.10 | 5.70 |
| Reds | 0.17 | 0.46 | -0.30 |
| Cheetahs | -1.69 | -4.16 | 2.50 |
| Blues | -2.68 | -3.02 | 0.30 |
| Hurricanes | -2.82 | 4.40 | -7.20 |
| Highlanders | -5.87 | -3.41 | -2.50 |
| Rebels | -8.64 | -10.64 | 2.00 |
| Force | -9.03 | -9.73 | 0.70 |
| Kings | -13.47 | -10.00 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Jul 05 | 43 – 15 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Jul 06 | 44 – 49 | 7.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Blues | Jul 06 | 34 – 13 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Kings vs. Stormers | Jul 06 | 12 – 24 | -13.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Jul 06 | 20 – 19 | 7.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Jul 12 | Crusaders | 14.70 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Highlanders | Jul 12 | Rebels | 1.20 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Jul 13 | Chiefs | -3.30 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Jul 13 | Waratahs | 4.00 |
| 5 | Force vs. Brumbies | Jul 13 | Brumbies | -10.70 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Kings | Jul 13 | Sharks | 18.30 |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Jul 13 | Bulls | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »