NRL Predictions, Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 17, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 10.67 | 5.23 | 5.40 |
| Storm | 4.45 | 9.73 | -5.30 |
| Roosters | 4.05 | -5.68 | 9.70 |
| Knights | 4.01 | 0.44 | 3.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.66 | 4.78 | -1.10 |
| Bulldogs | 1.92 | 7.33 | -5.40 |
| Cowboys | 0.57 | 7.05 | -6.50 |
| Panthers | 0.47 | -6.58 | 7.00 |
| Titans | -0.72 | -1.85 | 1.10 |
| Raiders | -0.74 | 2.03 | -2.80 |
| Warriors | -1.93 | -10.01 | 8.10 |
| Sharks | -2.58 | -1.78 | -0.80 |
| Dragons | -3.52 | -0.33 | -3.20 |
| Broncos | -3.59 | -1.55 | -2.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.05 | -3.71 | -2.30 |
| Eels | -14.42 | -8.82 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 118 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.02%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jun 28 | 32 – 2 | 12.39 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Jun 29 | 22 – 4 | -11.99 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Dragons | Jun 29 | 25 – 10 | 6.85 | TRUE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Titans | Jun 30 | 46 – 16 | 4.04 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 30 | 18 – 16 | 7.21 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Jun 30 | 24 – 4 | 4.56 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 01 | 18 – 12 | 4.61 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Broncos | Jul 05 | Storm | 12.50 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 05 | Sharks | 8.00 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Jul 06 | Roosters | -3.10 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Panthers | Jul 06 | Titans | 3.30 |
| 5 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jul 07 | Raiders | 3.20 |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Jul 07 | Bulldogs | 2.40 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Jul 07 | Rabbitohs | 17.10 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Jul 08 | Sea Eagles | 22.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hey David – Are you using a weighted rating system for the team ratings (for example: last week would be rated as a 1 and the week before 0.9 etc etc) – Or are all the weeks the same ?
11 years ago
It is weighted, specifically exponentially weighted. Take a look at the description on my home page. There is a link to in on every post of mine.
11 years ago