Team Ratings for Round 18
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|
Current Rating |
Rating at Season Start |
Difference |
Crusaders |
6.03 |
9.03 |
-3.00 |
Bulls |
5.96 |
2.55 |
3.40 |
Chiefs |
4.64 |
6.98 |
-2.30 |
Brumbies |
4.18 |
-1.06 |
5.20 |
Sharks |
2.26 |
4.57 |
-2.30 |
Waratahs |
1.62 |
-4.10 |
5.70 |
Stormers |
1.11 |
3.34 |
-2.20 |
Reds |
0.17 |
0.46 |
-0.30 |
Hurricanes |
-1.55 |
4.40 |
-5.90 |
Blues |
-1.62 |
-3.02 |
1.40 |
Cheetahs |
-1.63 |
-4.16 |
2.50 |
Highlanders |
-5.35 |
-3.41 |
-1.90 |
Rebels |
-8.64 |
-10.64 |
2.00 |
Force |
-9.03 |
-9.73 |
0.70 |
Kings |
-12.93 |
-10.00 |
-2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 103 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|
Game |
Date |
Score |
Prediction |
Correct |
1 |
Brumbies vs. Rebels |
Jun 07 |
39 – 17 |
14.00 |
TRUE |
2 |
Force vs. Waratahs |
Jun 09 |
13 – 28 |
-6.90 |
TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|
Game |
Date |
Winner |
Prediction |
1 |
Chiefs vs. Hurricanes |
Jun 28 |
Chiefs |
8.70 |
2 |
Highlanders vs. Crusaders |
Jun 29 |
Crusaders |
-8.90 |
3 |
Sharks vs. Blues |
Jun 29 |
Sharks |
7.90 |
4 |
Bulls vs. Kings |
Jun 29 |
Bulls |
21.40 |
5 |
Stormers vs. Cheetahs |
Jun 29 |
Stormers |
5.20 |