June 19, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 8.76 5.23 3.50
Storm 8.33 9.73 -1.40
Sea Eagles 3.80 4.78 -1.00
Roosters 3.34 -5.68 9.00
Bulldogs 2.49 7.33 -4.80
Raiders 2.34 2.03 0.30
Knights 1.42 0.44 1.00
Titans 0.99 -1.85 2.80
Panthers -0.35 -6.58 6.20
Cowboys -0.97 7.05 -8.00
Sharks -1.04 -1.78 0.70
Warriors -1.41 -10.01 8.60
Dragons -2.70 -0.33 -2.40
Broncos -4.11 -1.55 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.37 -3.71 -6.70
Eels -14.27 -8.82 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 14 16 – 22 4.97 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 30 – 32 7.76 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 15 24 – 12 5.99 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 15 32 – 14 17.67 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 30 – 24 13.84 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Knights Jun 16 16 – 14 13.76 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Jun 16 12 – 23 14.31 FALSE
8 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 32 – 12 8.44 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 21 Bulldogs 3.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 22 Raiders -8.20
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 23 Rabbitohs -18.50
4 Titans vs. Storm Jun 24 Storm -2.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Pradip Dahya

    Hi there

    Was this one incorrect:

    5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 30 – 24 13.84 TRUE

    12 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      No. The prediction was home team by nearly fourteen points. The home team won by 12 points, so the result of the game was correctly predicted. The predictions are assessed as TRUE or FALSE if the winning team is predicted correctly. The predicted margin indicates the likelihood of the prediction being true. It can be converted to give an actual probability, but I don’t do that.

      12 years ago

      • avatar
        Pradip Dahya

        Thanks for the quick reply – I thought the home team won by 6 – But sorry I thought you they were graded as true or false based on the points predictions. Thanks for the clarification.

        12 years ago