June 12, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.55 5.23 4.30
Storm 9.50 9.73 -0.20
Roosters 5.88 -5.68 11.60
Sea Eagles 4.77 4.78 -0.00
Raiders 1.74 2.03 -0.30
Bulldogs 1.51 7.33 -5.80
Panthers 0.25 -6.58 6.80
Knights 0.24 0.44 -0.20
Titans 0.21 -1.85 2.10
Sharks -1.07 -1.78 0.70
Dragons -1.60 -0.33 -1.30
Cowboys -2.07 7.05 -9.10
Warriors -3.94 -10.01 6.10
Broncos -5.27 -1.55 -3.70
Wests Tigers -9.21 -3.71 -5.50
Eels -14.24 -8.82 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.61%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 07 24 – 38 -16.02 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 08 8 – 14 9.43 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jun 08 26 – 36 3.64 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 18 – 16 -5.76 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Jun 09 18 – 20 17.95 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 09 38 – 6 10.84 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 10 30 – 8 8.88 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 14 Dragons 5.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 Sea Eagles 7.80
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 15 Raiders 6.00
4 Sharks vs. Eels Jun 15 Sharks 17.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 Rabbitohs 13.80
6 Storm vs. Knights Jun 16 Storm 13.80
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Jun 16 Roosters 14.30
8 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 Broncos 8.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Rick Anderson

    Are the Super Rugby Predictions up for Round 18 yet? I havent seen them and need to sort my Office sweepstake out today.

    Cheers

    Rick

    11 years ago

    • avatar

      Next game is two weeks away so I was intending to wait, but so as to not disappoint, I will put them up post haste.

      11 years ago