NRL Predictions, Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 9.55 | 5.23 | 4.30 |
| Storm | 9.50 | 9.73 | -0.20 |
| Roosters | 5.88 | -5.68 | 11.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.77 | 4.78 | -0.00 |
| Raiders | 1.74 | 2.03 | -0.30 |
| Bulldogs | 1.51 | 7.33 | -5.80 |
| Panthers | 0.25 | -6.58 | 6.80 |
| Knights | 0.24 | 0.44 | -0.20 |
| Titans | 0.21 | -1.85 | 2.10 |
| Sharks | -1.07 | -1.78 | 0.70 |
| Dragons | -1.60 | -0.33 | -1.30 |
| Cowboys | -2.07 | 7.05 | -9.10 |
| Warriors | -3.94 | -10.01 | 6.10 |
| Broncos | -5.27 | -1.55 | -3.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.21 | -3.71 | -5.50 |
| Eels | -14.24 | -8.82 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 99 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jun 07 | 24 – 38 | -16.02 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Dragons | Jun 08 | 8 – 14 | 9.43 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Jun 08 | 26 – 36 | 3.64 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 09 | 18 – 16 | -5.76 | FALSE |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 09 | 18 – 20 | 17.95 | FALSE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sharks | Jun 09 | 38 – 6 | 10.84 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Jun 10 | 30 – 8 | 8.88 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Jun 14 | Dragons | 5.00 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Jun 14 | Sea Eagles | 7.80 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Panthers | Jun 15 | Raiders | 6.00 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Eels | Jun 15 | Sharks | 17.70 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Jun 16 | Rabbitohs | 13.80 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Knights | Jun 16 | Storm | 13.80 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Jun 16 | Roosters | 14.30 |
| 8 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 17 | Broncos | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Are the Super Rugby Predictions up for Round 18 yet? I havent seen them and need to sort my Office sweepstake out today.
Cheers
Rick
12 years ago
Next game is two weeks away so I was intending to wait, but so as to not disappoint, I will put them up post haste.
12 years ago