May 30, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.79 9.03 -2.20
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 3.74 -1.06 4.80
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Stormers 1.92 3.34 -1.40
Waratahs 0.20 -4.10 4.30
Reds -0.05 0.46 -0.50
Blues -0.55 -3.02 2.50
Cheetahs -1.64 -4.16 2.50
Hurricanes -1.75 4.40 -6.10
Highlanders -6.41 -3.41 -3.00
Rebels -7.79 -10.64 2.90
Force -8.38 -9.73 1.40
Kings -13.74 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 24 28 – 19 -1.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 24 24 – 22 -6.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 25 13 – 20 1.00 FALSE
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 25 19 – 18 2.20 TRUE
5 Kings vs. Cheetahs May 25 22 – 24 -11.00 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds May 25 20 – 15 6.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Bulls May 25 16 – 18 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 31 Crusaders 10.60
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 31 Brumbies 9.50
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Jun 01 Blues -3.40
4 Reds vs. Rebels Jun 01 Reds 10.20
5 Stormers vs. Kings Jun 01 Stormers 18.20
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 01 Bulls -5.10

<
 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »