Super 15 Predictions, Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 7.62 | 9.03 | -1.40 |
| Bulls | 5.89 | 2.55 | 3.30 |
| Chiefs | 3.81 | 6.98 | -3.20 |
| Brumbies | 3.10 | -1.06 | 4.20 |
| Sharks | 2.33 | 4.57 | -2.20 |
| Stormers | 2.01 | 3.34 | -1.30 |
| Waratahs | 0.92 | -4.10 | 5.00 |
| Blues | 0.08 | -3.02 | 3.10 |
| Reds | -0.14 | 0.46 | -0.60 |
| Cheetahs | -0.91 | -4.16 | 3.20 |
| Hurricanes | -1.75 | 4.40 | -6.10 |
| Highlanders | -6.51 | -3.41 | -3.10 |
| Force | -8.28 | -9.73 | 1.50 |
| Rebels | -8.50 | -10.64 | 2.10 |
| Kings | -14.46 | -10.00 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | May 17 | 12 – 17 | -2.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Stormers | May 17 | 30 – 21 | -9.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Force vs. Sharks | May 17 | 13 – 23 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Blues | May 18 | 23 – 3 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | May 18 | 28 – 22 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Highlanders | May 18 | 35 – 18 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Reds | May 18 | 27 – 13 | 1.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | May 24 | Crusaders | -1.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | May 24 | Waratahs | -6.90 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Brumbies | May 25 | Blues | 1.00 |
| 4 | Force vs. Highlanders | May 25 | Force | 2.20 |
| 5 | Kings vs. Cheetahs | May 25 | Cheetahs | -11.00 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Reds | May 25 | Stormers | 6.20 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Bulls | May 25 | Bulls | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Just intersted how the Home Team advantage ‘offset’ is working out. Having seen several low margin away predictions come out on side for the home team does this need to be tweaked?
12 years ago