May 15, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.03 5.23 3.80
Roosters 7.07 -5.68 12.80
Storm 6.55 9.73 -3.20
Sea Eagles 5.44 4.78 0.70
Bulldogs 4.07 7.33 -3.30
Cowboys 2.61 7.05 -4.40
Raiders 0.63 2.03 -1.40
Broncos 0.45 -1.55 2.00
Knights 0.01 0.44 -0.40
Sharks -0.44 -1.78 1.30
Dragons -2.51 -0.33 -2.20
Titans -3.42 -1.85 -1.60
Panthers -4.73 -6.58 1.80
Warriors -8.16 -10.01 1.90
Eels -9.94 -8.82 -1.10
Wests Tigers -10.41 -3.71 -6.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 10 28 – 10 9.15 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks May 10 6 – 30 -0.84 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Bulldogs May 11 16 – 24 -7.65 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Broncos May 11 19 – 18 -7.61 FALSE
5 Raiders vs. Knights May 12 44 – 14 -1.10 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Dragons May 12 15 – 14 4.24 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Storm May 12 12 – 10 -8.98 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters May 13 4 – 16 6.58 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans May 17 Broncos 8.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 17 Rabbitohs 23.90
3 Dragons vs. Eels May 18 Dragons 11.90
4 Panthers vs. Warriors May 18 Panthers 7.90
5 Cowboys vs. Roosters May 18 Cowboys 0.00
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 19 Sharks 3.40
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 19 Knights 0.40
8 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 20 Storm 5.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »