May 8, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 8.15 5.23 2.90
Storm 7.65 9.73 -2.10
Sea Eagles 7.30 4.78 2.50
Roosters 5.21 -5.68 10.90
Bulldogs 4.03 7.33 -3.30
Cowboys 3.49 7.05 -3.60
Knights 3.12 0.44 2.70
Broncos 1.31 -1.55 2.90
Raiders -2.48 2.03 -4.50
Sharks -2.76 -1.78 -1.00
Dragons -2.83 -0.33 -2.50
Titans -3.09 -1.85 -1.20
Panthers -5.83 -6.58 0.70
Wests Tigers -8.10 -3.71 -4.40
Warriors -8.12 -10.01 1.90
Eels -10.80 -8.82 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.06%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs May 03 12 – 26 0.58 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 03 40 – 4 11.79 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 20 – 24 19.28 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Cowboys May 04 10 – 14 -11.24 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Titans May 05 25 – 24 -0.91 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 05 20 – 21 13.23 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Panthers May 05 30 – 6 13.43 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles May 06 18 – 24 -5.53 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 10 Rabbitohs 9.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks May 10 Sharks -0.80
3 Warriors vs. Bulldogs May 11 Bulldogs -7.70
4 Eels vs. Broncos May 11 Broncos -7.60
5 Raiders vs. Knights May 12 Knights -1.10
6 Titans vs. Dragons May 12 Titans 4.20
7 Panthers vs. Storm May 12 Storm -9.00
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters May 13 Sea Eagles 6.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »