Super 15 Predictions, Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 5.91 | 9.03 | -3.10 |
| Chiefs | 5.59 | 6.98 | -1.40 |
| Brumbies | 4.40 | -1.06 | 5.50 |
| Sharks | 3.88 | 4.57 | -0.70 |
| Stormers | 3.87 | 3.34 | 0.50 |
| Bulls | 3.76 | 2.55 | 1.20 |
| Blues | 2.19 | -3.02 | 5.20 |
| Reds | 0.36 | 0.46 | -0.10 |
| Hurricanes | -0.31 | 4.40 | -4.70 |
| Cheetahs | -1.12 | -4.16 | 3.00 |
| Waratahs | -4.93 | -4.10 | -0.80 |
| Highlanders | -6.13 | -3.41 | -2.70 |
| Force | -9.97 | -9.73 | -0.20 |
| Kings | -10.69 | -10.00 | -0.70 |
| Rebels | -11.60 | -10.64 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 68 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Stormers | Apr 26 | 16 – 18 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Blues | Apr 26 | 12 – 11 | 2.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | 37 – 29 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Force | Apr 27 | 41 – 7 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Waratahs | Apr 27 | 30 – 19 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Kings | Apr 27 | 26 – 12 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Apr 28 | 30 – 26 | 24.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Stormers | May 03 | Blues | 2.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Chiefs | May 03 | Chiefs | -13.20 |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Sharks | May 04 | Sharks | -6.00 |
| 4 | Force vs. Reds | May 04 | Reds | -7.80 |
| 5 | Kings vs. Waratahs | May 04 | Waratahs | -1.80 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Hurricanes | May 04 | Bulls | 8.10 |
| 7 | Brumbies vs. Crusaders | May 05 | Brumbies | 2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I think it would be far for impressive to use your rating system against the bookies odds and see how many you call right on the spread.
example game 1 of week 12.
you called Blues by 2.30 points.
the spread was blues – 3,5 points
So your stats would say Stormers +3,5
Which would have been correct 18-17 final score
Just a thought…
12 years ago