NRL Predictions, Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.98 | 9.73 | 0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.25 | 4.78 | 2.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.69 | 5.23 | 1.50 |
| Knights | 4.55 | 0.44 | 4.10 |
| Cowboys | 4.21 | 7.05 | -2.80 |
| Roosters | 4.16 | -5.68 | 9.80 |
| Broncos | 2.76 | -1.55 | 4.30 |
| Bulldogs | 1.61 | 7.33 | -5.70 |
| Dragons | -2.78 | -0.33 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -2.90 | -1.85 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | -4.18 | -1.78 | -2.40 |
| Panthers | -4.77 | -6.58 | 1.80 |
| Raiders | -4.81 | 2.03 | -6.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.67 | -3.71 | -2.00 |
| Warriors | -8.31 | -10.01 | 1.70 |
| Eels | -11.53 | -8.82 | -2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.07%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Apr 25 | 34 – 10 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | 28 – 18 | 25.99 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 26 | 12 – 20 | 8.33 | FALSE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Apr 27 | 30 – 12 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Apr 27 | 10 – 20 | -2.42 | TRUE |
| 6 | Titans vs. Knights | Apr 28 | 6 – 30 | 2.32 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Bulldogs | Apr 28 | 8 – 24 | 2.38 | FALSE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Eels | Apr 29 | 42 – 12 | 6.57 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | May 03 | Broncos | 0.60 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | May 03 | Bulldogs | 11.80 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Raiders | May 04 | Storm | 19.30 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Cowboys | May 04 | Cowboys | -11.20 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Titans | May 05 | Titans | -0.90 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Sharks | May 05 | Knights | 13.20 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Panthers | May 05 | Roosters | 13.40 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | May 06 | Sea Eagles | -5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »