April 24, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.58 9.73 1.90
Sea Eagles 8.88 4.78 4.10
Rabbitohs 5.06 5.23 -0.20
Cowboys 3.66 7.05 -3.40
Roosters 2.59 -5.68 8.30
Broncos 2.01 -1.55 3.60
Knights 1.91 0.44 1.50
Bulldogs -0.23 7.33 -7.60
Titans -0.27 -1.85 1.60
Dragons -1.21 -0.33 -0.90
Sharks -2.34 -1.78 -0.60
Raiders -4.25 2.03 -6.30
Wests Tigers -4.92 -3.71 -1.20
Panthers -7.12 -6.58 -0.50
Eels -9.18 -8.82 -0.40
Warriors -9.91 -10.01 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Apr 12 12 – 10 3.06 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 38 – 0 -0.36 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 13 8 – 6 16.41 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 13 20 – 16 11.70 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Apr 13 10 – 17 -0.78 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Apr 14 25 – 18 17.91 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 12 – 13 1.25 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels Apr 14 28 – 22 15.26 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 8.30
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 26.00
3 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 Sea Eagles 8.30
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 27 Cowboys 12.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 Broncos -2.40
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 28 Titans 2.30
7 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Apr 28 Sharks 2.40
8 Panthers vs. Eels Apr 29 Panthers 6.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »