April 10, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.98 9.03 -0.00
Chiefs 8.18 6.98 1.20
Sharks 6.02 4.57 1.50
Stormers 3.11 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.17 -1.06 3.20
Hurricanes 2.16 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.90 2.55 -0.60
Blues 0.37 -3.02 3.40
Reds -1.22 0.46 -1.70
Cheetahs -2.72 -4.16 1.40
Highlanders -5.57 -3.41 -2.20
Waratahs -6.18 -4.10 -2.10
Kings -8.61 -10.00 1.40
Force -10.32 -9.73 -0.60
Rebels -13.06 -10.64 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 18 8.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Kings Apr 05 28 – 28 17.60 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 05 21 – 17 0.50 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 06 41 – 29 12.40 TRUE
5 Force vs. Rebels Apr 06 23 – 30 7.60 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Apr 06 26 – 24 -4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Brumbies -3.70
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 13 Chiefs 13.40
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 Blues 0.70
4 Rebels vs. Kings Apr 13 Kings -0.50
5 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 13 Crusaders -15.30
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Apr 13 Sharks -0.40
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 13 Bulls 7.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »