Super 15 Predictions, Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.26 | 9.03 | 0.20 |
| Chiefs | 8.18 | 6.98 | 1.20 |
| Sharks | 5.74 | 4.57 | 1.20 |
| Stormers | 3.61 | 3.34 | 0.30 |
| Brumbies | 3.58 | -1.06 | 4.60 |
| Hurricanes | 2.19 | 4.40 | -2.20 |
| Bulls | 1.90 | 2.55 | -0.60 |
| Blues | 0.13 | -3.02 | 3.20 |
| Reds | -1.22 | 0.46 | -1.70 |
| Cheetahs | -3.22 | -4.16 | 0.90 |
| Highlanders | -5.32 | -3.41 | -1.90 |
| Waratahs | -6.21 | -4.10 | -2.10 |
| Force | -9.15 | -9.73 | 0.60 |
| Kings | -10.02 | -10.00 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -14.23 | -10.64 | -3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | Mar 29 | 33 – 34 | 0.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Kings | Mar 30 | 46 – 30 | 16.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Blues | Mar 30 | 23 – 16 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Bulls | Mar 30 | 23 – 20 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Rebels | Mar 30 | 34 – 16 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Crusaders | Mar 30 | 14 – 19 | -1.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Force | Mar 31 | 23 – 19 | 5.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Apr 05 | Blues | 8.00 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Kings | Apr 05 | Brumbies | 17.60 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Crusaders | Apr 05 | Sharks | 0.50 |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Apr 06 | Hurricanes | 12.40 |
| 5 | Force vs. Rebels | Apr 06 | Force | 7.60 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Stormers | Apr 06 | Stormers | -4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »