NRL Predictions, Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.97 | 9.73 | 2.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.51 | 4.78 | 2.70 |
| Bulldogs | 6.09 | 7.33 | -1.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.95 | 5.23 | 0.70 |
| Cowboys | 3.29 | 7.05 | -3.80 |
| Knights | 3.23 | 0.44 | 2.80 |
| Titans | 2.03 | -1.85 | 3.90 |
| Sharks | -0.15 | -1.78 | 1.60 |
| Broncos | -1.02 | -1.55 | 0.50 |
| Raiders | -2.91 | 2.03 | -4.90 |
| Dragons | -3.98 | -0.33 | -3.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.51 | -3.71 | -0.80 |
| Panthers | -5.37 | -6.58 | 1.20 |
| Roosters | -5.72 | -5.68 | -0.00 |
| Eels | -6.81 | -8.82 | 2.00 |
| Warriors | -13.32 | -10.01 | -3.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.83%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Mar 21 | 22 – 18 | 11.97 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Mar 22 | 31 – 18 | 5.25 | TRUE |
| 3 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 23 | 16 – 14 | -1.73 | FALSE |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 23 | 8 – 0 | -2.26 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Mar 24 | 28 – 4 | 16.09 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 24 | 32 – 44 | -5.52 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Mar 24 | 30 – 17 | 3.72 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Mar 25 | 34 – 6 | -1.44 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 28 | Sea Eagles | 16.50 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 29 | Bulldogs | 4.60 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Mar 29 | Storm | -8.50 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Mar 30 | Sharks | 8.30 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Titans | Mar 31 | Titans | -2.90 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 31 | Knights | 10.60 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | Apr 01 | Cowboys | -12.10 |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Eels | Apr 01 | Roosters | 5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »