March 13, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.19 6.98 2.20
Crusaders 6.63 9.03 -2.40
Sharks 4.55 4.57 -0.00
Bulls 3.19 2.55 0.60
Stormers 3.09 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.69 -1.06 3.70
Hurricanes 2.34 4.40 -2.10
Blues 0.26 -3.02 3.30
Reds -0.12 0.46 -0.60
Cheetahs -4.45 -4.16 -0.30
Highlanders -5.77 -3.41 -2.40
Waratahs -6.29 -4.10 -2.20
Kings -9.16 -10.00 0.80
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.77 -10.64 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 29 – 28 -2.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 13 – 23 -7.80 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 19 – 36 6.40 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 35 – 6 8.10 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 36 – 34 -2.90 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 12 – 21 -11.60 TRUE
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 21 – 28 2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Hurricanes -5.60
2 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Waratahs 2.20
3 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 15 Chiefs -14.30
4 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 16 Crusaders 7.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 16 Reds 12.50
6 Sharks vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Sharks 5.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »