March 13, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.27 9.73 0.50
Cowboys 8.72 7.05 1.70
Rabbitohs 6.39 5.23 1.20
Bulldogs 5.65 7.33 -1.70
Sea Eagles 5.39 4.78 0.60
Knights 2.77 0.44 2.30
Raiders -0.58 2.03 -2.60
Dragons -0.87 -0.33 -0.50
Titans -1.60 -1.85 0.30
Sharks -2.04 -1.78 -0.30
Broncos -2.17 -1.55 -0.60
Panthers -3.97 -6.58 2.60
Wests Tigers -6.04 -3.71 -2.30
Eels -6.39 -8.82 2.40
Roosters -6.84 -5.68 -1.20
Warriors -12.44 -10.01 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 10 – 28 -6.41 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Mar 08 14 – 22 -1.83 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 09 40 – 10 5.69 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 09 12 – 24 4.78 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Mar 10 32 – 10 -4.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 10 30 – 10 14.56 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 10 12 – 10 4.57 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 11 42 – 10 8.65 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 14 Bulldogs -7.50
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 15 Dragons 5.80
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 16 Cowboys 3.00
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 16 Roosters -1.10
5 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 17 Titans 3.50
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Mar 17 Wests Tigers 2.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 17 Sea Eagles 7.10
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 18 Rabbitohs 12.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »