Super 15 Predictions, Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 9.58 | 6.98 | 2.60 |
| Crusaders | 6.90 | 9.03 | -2.10 |
| Sharks | 4.76 | 4.57 | 0.20 |
| Stormers | 2.70 | 3.34 | -0.60 |
| Bulls | 2.42 | 2.55 | -0.10 |
| Hurricanes | 2.07 | 4.40 | -2.30 |
| Brumbies | 1.02 | -1.06 | 2.10 |
| Blues | 1.02 | -3.02 | 4.00 |
| Reds | -0.30 | 0.46 | -0.80 |
| Highlanders | -3.90 | -3.41 | -0.50 |
| Waratahs | -4.62 | -4.10 | -0.50 |
| Cheetahs | -6.32 | -4.16 | -2.20 |
| Kings | -9.37 | -10.00 | 0.60 |
| Force | -10.16 | -9.73 | -0.40 |
| Rebels | -10.60 | -10.64 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Mar 01 | 34 – 15 | -7.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Mar 01 | 31 – 26 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Mar 01 | 18 – 12 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Cheetahs | Mar 02 | 45 – 3 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Force | Mar 02 | 36 – 26 | 17.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Mar 02 | 12 – 6 | 4.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Mar 08 | Crusaders | -2.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Mar 08 | Reds | -7.80 |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Cheetahs | Mar 09 | Highlanders | 6.40 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Mar 09 | Brumbies | 8.10 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Chiefs | Mar 09 | Chiefs | -2.90 |
| 6 | Kings vs. Sharks | Mar 09 | Sharks | -11.60 |
| 7 | Blues vs. Bulls | Mar 10 | Blues | 2.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Do you also do predictions for the South African Currie cup ? and if not How do you calculate your predictions if we want to calculate it ourselves .
Willem
11 years ago
I haven’t done predictions on the Currie Cup, but could easily do so. The only problem would be getting a few years (maybe 5 at least) of data of past games. If you could supply a file of results, I would be happy to provide some predictions.
11 years ago
Thanks, I’ll see if we could gather the info
11 years ago
I have found the Currie cup results from 2008 – 2012. Please send met an e-mail address to send the PDF files with the results
Regards
Willem
11 years ago