Super 15 Predictions, Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.03 | 9.03 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 7.47 | 6.98 | 0.50 |
| Sharks | 4.63 | 4.57 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | 3.05 | 2.55 | 0.50 |
| Stormers | 2.83 | 3.34 | -0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 2.49 | 4.40 | -1.90 |
| Brumbies | 1.02 | -1.06 | 2.10 |
| Reds | -0.72 | 0.46 | -1.20 |
| Blues | -1.11 | -3.02 | 1.90 |
| Highlanders | -3.90 | -3.41 | -0.50 |
| Cheetahs | -4.22 | -4.16 | -0.10 |
| Waratahs | -4.29 | -4.10 | -0.20 |
| Kings | -9.37 | -10.00 | 0.60 |
| Force | -10.79 | -9.73 | -1.10 |
| Rebels | -10.93 | -10.64 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Feb 22 | 27 – 41 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Feb 22 | 13 – 30 | -8.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Feb 22 | 25 – 17 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Feb 23 | 20 – 34 | 9.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Feb 23 | 25 – 17 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Feb 23 | 22 – 29 | -6.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Kings vs. Force | Feb 23 | 22 – 10 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Mar 01 | Crusaders | -7.60 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Mar 01 | Waratahs | 9.10 |
| 3 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Mar 01 | Reds | 0.80 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Cheetahs | Mar 02 | Chiefs | 15.70 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Force | Mar 02 | Bulls | 17.80 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Mar 02 | Sharks | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Could the size of the number in the prediction column help predict how big the points difference will be?
12 years ago
It is my estimate of the expected points difference, so yes, a bigger number indicates a bigger expected points difference.
12 years ago
Hi there,
When will you load the predictions for round 4?
Also could you explain the points in the last column?
Thanks :)
12 years ago
I aim to post the new predictions on Wednesday each week.
The points in the final column are my estimated expected points difference between the two teams. There will of course be variability about that expected value. The larger the value (either positive or negative), the higher is the chance that my predicted winner will actually win the game.
12 years ago
Thanks
12 years ago