September 13, 2012

More surveys and political identity

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Republicans and Democrats are hearing very different news about the economy:

In this example there are more possible explanations than last time:

  • They really are hearing different news, because local conditions vary.  This one can’t really be true, because the geographical polarisation of voters isn’t strong enough
  • They really are hearing different news, because they get it from different sources. In some ways that’s the most worrying possibility — a massive breakdown in the effectiveness of journalism.
  • They are hearing the same news, but it has different implications.  For example, perhaps Republicans think the prospect of higher tax rates on income above $250,000 is bad economic news and Democrats think it is good economic news.  I don’t think this can explain such a big and recent difference.
  • They are exposed to the same news, but only really hear the bits that confirm their beliefs.  Quite likely, and worrying.
  • They don’t really believe what they are saying. The most positive interpretation, except if you’re in the survey business.

 

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »