September 7, 2012

NRL Predictions, Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Finals Week 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 6.56 -1.86 8.40
Cowboys 6.40 -1.32 7.70
Sea Eagles 6.21 9.83 -3.60
Rabbitohs 5.51 0.04 5.50
Storm 5.38 4.63 0.80
Raiders 1.41 -8.40 9.80
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.53 5.57 -6.10
Sharks -1.17 -7.97 6.80
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 31 6 – 18 1.10 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 31 19 – 12 11.07 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Sep 01 16 – 24 -3.13 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Sep 01 6 – 26 -0.51 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Sep 01 42 – 10 13.54 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 02 22 – 36 -0.99 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Sep 02 22 – 42 -2.13 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 8 – 29 -0.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 07 Bulldogs 4.90
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 08 Cowboys 11.40
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 08 Raiders 7.10
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 09 Storm 4.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »