August 15, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.79 -1.86 10.70
Cowboys 4.98 -1.32 6.30
Sea Eagles 4.67 9.83 -5.20
Storm 4.36 4.63 -0.30
Rabbitohs 4.05 0.04 4.00
Knights 2.18 0.77 1.40
Wests Tigers -0.05 4.52 -4.60
Broncos -0.18 5.57 -5.70
Titans -0.33 -11.80 11.50
Sharks -1.90 -7.97 6.10
Raiders -2.38 -8.40 6.00
Warriors -3.50 5.28 -8.80
Dragons -3.76 4.36 -8.10
Eels -5.10 -4.23 -0.90
Roosters -6.44 0.25 -6.70
Panthers -9.12 -3.40 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.74%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 6 – 23 2.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 10 24 – 16 9.42 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 11 36 – 22 4.28 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 11 22 – 12 7.87 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 11 52 – 12 7.83 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 12 10 – 20 -0.76 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 12 22 – 14 14.51 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 13 26 – 4 6.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 17 Storm -0.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 17 Bulldogs 13.30
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 18 Raiders 8.60
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 18 Rabbitohs -1.50
5 Titans vs. Eels Aug 19 Titans 9.30
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 19 Warriors 10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 19 Sea Eagles 7.00
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 20 Cowboys -4.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »