NRL Predictions, Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 7.75 | -1.86 | 9.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.99 | 0.04 | 3.90 |
| Warriors | 3.65 | 5.28 | -1.60 |
| Broncos | 3.45 | 5.57 | -2.10 |
| Cowboys | 3.36 | -1.32 | 4.70 |
| Storm | 3.09 | 4.63 | -1.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.29 | 9.83 | -7.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.26 | 4.52 | -4.80 |
| Knights | -0.61 | 0.77 | -1.40 |
| Raiders | -1.78 | -8.40 | 6.60 |
| Titans | -1.90 | -11.80 | 9.90 |
| Dragons | -3.07 | 4.36 | -7.40 |
| Sharks | -4.28 | -7.97 | 3.70 |
| Roosters | -5.26 | 0.25 | -5.50 |
| Panthers | -6.87 | -3.40 | -3.50 |
| Eels | -7.28 | -4.23 | -3.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.33%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Jul 20 | 12 – 20 | 0.37 | FALSE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 20 | 14 – 10 | -1.77 | FALSE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Knights | Jul 21 | 19 – 24 | 11.38 | FALSE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Storm | Jul 21 | 16 – 10 | -8.13 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Jul 21 | 36 – 14 | 9.58 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Jul 22 | 4 – 36 | 8.47 | FALSE |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Jul 22 | 28 – 16 | 1.16 | TRUE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 23 | 29 – 16 | 7.19 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Storm | Jul 27 | Storm | -1.70 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Titans | Jul 27 | Roosters | 1.10 |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Jul 28 | Bulldogs | 8.90 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Jul 28 | Warriors | -1.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Jul 28 | Sharks | 7.10 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 29 | Raiders | 3.30 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 29 | Rabbitohs | 8.80 |
| 8 | Broncos vs. Eels | Jul 30 | Broncos | 15.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Warriors the third best team? Time to revise your method.
12 years ago