Super 15 Predictions, Week 21
Team Ratings for Week 21
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.85 | 10.46 | -0.60 |
| Stormers | 5.99 | 6.59 | -0.60 |
| Sharks | 4.23 | 0.87 | 3.40 |
| Hurricanes | 3.57 | -1.90 | 5.50 |
| Bulls | 3.28 | 4.16 | -0.90 |
| Chiefs | 2.91 | -1.17 | 4.10 |
| Brumbies | 1.05 | -6.66 | 7.70 |
| Reds | 0.90 | 5.03 | -4.10 |
| Waratahs | -2.49 | 4.98 | -7.50 |
| Highlanders | -3.17 | -5.69 | 2.50 |
| Cheetahs | -3.44 | -1.46 | -2.00 |
| Blues | -4.71 | 2.87 | -7.60 |
| Lions | -8.71 | -10.82 | 2.10 |
| Force | -10.01 | -4.95 | -5.10 |
| Rebels | -12.56 | -15.64 | 3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jul 06 | 21 – 28 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Highlanders | Jul 06 | 19 – 13 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Jul 06 | 32 – 10 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Force | Jul 07 | 32 – 9 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jul 07 | 15 – 19 | 1.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Stormers | Jul 07 | 6 – 13 | -4.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Lions vs. Rebels | Jul 07 | 37 – 32 | 9.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 21
Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Jul 13 | Hurricanes | 5.20 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Blues | Jul 14 | Brumbies | 10.30 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Force | Jul 14 | Crusaders | 24.40 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Jul 14 | Reds | 7.90 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Rebels | Jul 14 | Stormers | 23.10 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Jul 14 | Sharks | 12.20 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Lions | Jul 14 | Bulls | 16.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »