Super 15 Predictions, Week 20
Team Ratings for Week 20
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.42 | 10.46 | -1.00 |
| Stormers | 5.80 | 6.59 | -0.80 |
| Bulls | 4.85 | 4.16 | 0.70 |
| Hurricanes | 3.57 | -1.90 | 5.50 |
| Chiefs | 3.35 | -1.17 | 4.50 |
| Sharks | 2.65 | 0.87 | 1.80 |
| Reds | 1.14 | 5.03 | -3.90 |
| Brumbies | 0.57 | -6.66 | 7.20 |
| Waratahs | -2.01 | 4.98 | -7.00 |
| Cheetahs | -3.24 | -1.46 | -1.80 |
| Highlanders | -3.41 | -5.69 | 2.30 |
| Blues | -5.97 | 2.87 | -8.80 |
| Lions | -8.39 | -10.82 | 2.40 |
| Force | -8.76 | -4.95 | -3.80 |
| Rebels | -12.88 | -15.64 | 2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 106 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Jun 29 | 21 – 27 | -1.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Jun 29 | 17 – 31 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Jun 30 | 22 – 23 | 12.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Force vs. Brumbies | Jun 30 | 17 – 28 | -3.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Lions | Jun 30 | 27 – 17 | 20.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Cheetahs | Jun 30 | 40 – 24 | 11.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 20
Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jul 06 | Crusaders | -1.60 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Highlanders | Jul 06 | Reds | 9.10 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Force | Jul 07 | Blues | 7.30 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jul 07 | Waratahs | 1.90 |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Stormers | Jul 07 | Stormers | -4.50 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Rebels | Jul 07 | Lions | 9.00 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Jul 07 | Sharks | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David
I have really enjoyed reading your super rugby predictions over the course of the competition.
Your predictions, which I know are based soley on the numbers, have been very accurate. I find this particularly interesting because certain key factors, such as team’s current form and injuries, have not been included in the calculations.
I can work out how you calculate each team’s current rating but would like to ask how you calculate the team’s rating at the beginning of the competition?
It would be very interesting to know how far back you look and what team data you use to calculate the initial ratings.
I have never done any form of regression testing, but after reading this column, I think I may give it a go myself but I am a bit unsure how to start.
Thanks for the entertainment.
Warwick
12 years ago