July 4, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.09 4.63 4.50
Bulldogs 6.13 -1.86 8.00
Sea Eagles 5.70 9.83 -4.10
Broncos 4.04 5.57 -1.50
Warriors 3.49 5.28 -1.80
Rabbitohs 2.33 0.04 2.30
Cowboys 1.96 -1.32 3.30
Wests Tigers 1.59 4.52 -2.90
Sharks 0.18 -7.97 8.20
Titans -2.35 -11.80 9.50
Dragons -2.51 4.36 -6.90
Knights -3.68 0.77 -4.50
Roosters -5.28 0.25 -5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.40 0.80
Panthers -8.16 -3.40 -4.80
Eels -8.64 -4.23 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.02%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 29 12 – 26 12.62 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Knights Jun 30 12 – 20 0.97 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jul 01 35 – 18 3.93 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 01 38 – 12 12.89 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 02 22 – 18 -1.51 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Jul 06 Bulldogs -0.00
2 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 07 Storm 21.20
3 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 07 Warriors -1.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 08 Rabbitohs 10.50
5 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 08 Sea Eagles 18.80
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jul 09 Sharks 10.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »