NRL Predictions, Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.90 | 4.63 | 6.30 |
| Broncos | 5.74 | 5.57 | 0.20 |
| Bulldogs | 4.32 | -1.86 | 6.20 |
| Wests Tigers | 3.44 | 4.52 | -1.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.69 | 9.83 | -7.10 |
| Warriors | 2.44 | 5.28 | -2.80 |
| Cowboys | 2.40 | -1.32 | 3.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.72 | 0.04 | 1.70 |
| Dragons | -1.81 | 4.36 | -6.20 |
| Sharks | -1.95 | -7.97 | 6.00 |
| Roosters | -2.28 | 0.25 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -2.62 | -11.80 | 9.20 |
| Knights | -6.25 | 0.77 | -7.00 |
| Panthers | -6.51 | -3.40 | -3.10 |
| Raiders | -7.47 | -8.40 | 0.90 |
| Eels | -8.53 | -4.23 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 110 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Jun 15 | 20 – 28 | -0.41 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Jun 15 | 12 – 0 | -0.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Jun 16 | 20 – 19 | -0.06 | FALSE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 16 | 6 – 24 | -8.76 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Panthers | Jun 17 | 36 – 18 | 6.56 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Jun 17 | 28 – 42 | 14.83 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Jun 18 | 22 – 26 | -3.65 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Titans | Jun 22 | Dragons | 5.30 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 22 | Broncos | 8.50 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Jun 23 | Cowboys | 14.40 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Eels | Jun 23 | Panthers | 6.50 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Storm | Jun 24 | Storm | -6.60 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 24 | Sea Eagles | -0.50 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 25 | Wests Tigers | -5.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »