Super 15 Predictions, Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.08 | 10.46 | -1.40 |
| Stormers | 5.92 | 6.59 | -0.70 |
| Bulls | 5.23 | 4.16 | 1.10 |
| Sharks | 4.30 | 0.87 | 3.40 |
| Chiefs | 2.75 | -1.17 | 3.90 |
| Reds | 0.72 | 5.03 | -4.30 |
| Hurricanes | 0.49 | -1.90 | 2.40 |
| Waratahs | -0.01 | 4.98 | -5.00 |
| Brumbies | -0.02 | -6.66 | 6.60 |
| Highlanders | -1.63 | -5.69 | 4.10 |
| Cheetahs | -2.92 | -1.46 | -1.50 |
| Blues | -5.73 | 2.87 | -8.60 |
| Force | -8.17 | -4.95 | -3.20 |
| Lions | -10.87 | -10.82 | -0.10 |
| Rebels | -12.44 | -15.64 | 3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Bulls | May 25 | 28 – 22 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | May 26 | 66 – 24 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Highlanders | May 26 | 20 – 27 | 1.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Reds | May 26 | 12 – 13 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Force vs. Lions | May 26 | 17 – 11 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Waratahs | May 26 | 35 – 34 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Stormers | May 26 | 25 – 20 | 2.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jun 01 | Crusaders | 15.20 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Jun 01 | Brumbies | -7.90 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Jun 02 | Chiefs | -4.00 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Hurricanes | Jun 02 | Waratahs | 4.00 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jun 02 | Sharks | -10.70 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jun 02 | Bulls | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Your stats ring true with form. But I just cannot understand how you can have a -4.00 for the Chiefs game, when one team is at the top of the table and the other the bottom? You must be looking at an historical home advantage that is not relevant this season – and the “home” game in this instance is not at the blues “fortress”
12 years ago
Well, I don’t think the prediction was too bad in the end. Note that the Blues have had a bad season on wins, but haven’t actually lost badly except against the Crusaders. They also had one win seriously against form, namely against the Bulls in South Africa.
As for home ground advantage, I am happy that it exists and needs to be taken into account. Some games are at neutral venues, but I find it hard to argue that North Harbour is a neutral venue. It may not be as much a home ground as Eden Park, but then you are faced with how much to discount the usual home ground advantage. I just went with the value I always use.
12 years ago