May 30, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.80 4.63 7.20
Broncos 4.60 5.57 -1.00
Bulldogs 3.91 -1.86 5.80
Cowboys 3.12 -1.32 4.40
Sea Eagles 2.36 9.83 -7.50
Warriors 1.88 5.28 -3.40
Wests Tigers 1.57 4.52 -2.90
Rabbitohs 0.79 0.04 0.70
Dragons -0.86 4.36 -5.20
Sharks -1.47 -7.97 6.50
Knights -3.08 0.77 -3.90
Roosters -3.76 0.25 -4.00
Panthers -4.58 -3.40 -1.20
Titans -4.67 -11.80 7.10
Raiders -6.63 -8.40 1.80
Eels -8.73 -4.23 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.24%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 25 34 – 10 9.36 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 25 36 – 18 10.75 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans May 26 14 – 24 9.16 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Eels May 26 14 – 12 14.35 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 27 22 – 4 -6.34 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 27 26 – 18 1.98 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Bulldogs May 28 12 – 30 -0.34 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 01 Cowboys -3.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 01 Sea Eagles 7.70
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jun 02 Wests Tigers -3.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jun 02 Bulldogs 7.60
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 03 Storm -5.40
6 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 03 Broncos 12.20
7 Eels vs. Sharks Jun 04 Sharks -2.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »