Super 15 Predictions, Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.08 | 10.46 | -1.40 |
| Stormers | 6.12 | 6.59 | -0.50 |
| Bulls | 5.61 | 4.16 | 1.40 |
| Sharks | 4.10 | 0.87 | 3.20 |
| Chiefs | 2.37 | -1.17 | 3.50 |
| Brumbies | 0.43 | -6.66 | 7.10 |
| Reds | 0.26 | 5.03 | -4.80 |
| Waratahs | -0.07 | 4.98 | -5.00 |
| Hurricanes | -1.85 | -1.90 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | -2.34 | -5.69 | 3.30 |
| Cheetahs | -2.86 | -1.46 | -1.40 |
| Blues | -5.02 | 2.87 | -7.90 |
| Force | -8.05 | -4.95 | -3.10 |
| Rebels | -10.10 | -15.64 | 5.50 |
| Lions | -10.98 | -10.82 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 87 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | May 18 | 25 – 37 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Highlanders vs. Bulls | May 19 | 16 – 11 | -5.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Blues | May 19 | 59 – 12 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Reds vs. Lions | May 19 | 34 – 20 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | May 19 | 20 – 34 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Waratahs | May 19 | 19 – 13 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Force vs. Rebels | May 20 | 31 – 32 | 8.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Bulls | May 25 | Chiefs | 1.30 |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | May 26 | Hurricanes | 12.80 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Highlanders | May 26 | Blues | 1.80 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Reds | May 26 | Brumbies | 4.70 |
| 5 | Force vs. Lions | May 26 | Force | 7.40 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Waratahs | May 26 | Cheetahs | 1.70 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Stormers | May 26 | Sharks | 2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »