Super 15 Predictions, Week 13
Team Ratings for Week 13
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stormers | 6.57 | 6.59 | -0.00 |
| Bulls | 6.42 | 4.16 | 2.30 |
| Crusaders | 6.37 | 10.46 | -4.10 |
| Sharks | 3.00 | 0.87 | 2.10 |
| Chiefs | 2.37 | -1.17 | 3.50 |
| Reds | 0.43 | 5.03 | -4.60 |
| Hurricanes | -0.50 | -1.90 | 1.40 |
| Waratahs | -0.52 | 4.98 | -5.50 |
| Brumbies | -0.92 | -6.66 | 5.70 |
| Cheetahs | -1.76 | -1.46 | -0.30 |
| Blues | -2.32 | 2.87 | -5.20 |
| Highlanders | -3.14 | -5.69 | 2.50 |
| Force | -7.33 | -4.95 | -2.40 |
| Rebels | -10.82 | -15.64 | 4.80 |
| Lions | -11.15 | -10.82 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Lions | May 11 | 25 – 3 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Bulls | May 11 | 24 – 27 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Hurricanes | May 12 | 20 – 26 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Rebels vs. Crusaders | May 12 | 28 – 19 | -16.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Force | May 12 | 53 – 11 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Cheetahs | May 12 | 16 – 14 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Reds vs. Chiefs | May 13 | 42 – 27 | 0.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 13
Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | May 18 | Hurricanes | 4.90 |
| 2 | Highlanders vs. Bulls | May 19 | Bulls | -5.10 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Blues | May 19 | Crusaders | 13.20 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Lions | May 19 | Reds | 16.10 |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | May 19 | Sharks | -0.30 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Waratahs | May 19 | Stormers | 11.60 |
| 7 | Force vs. Rebels | May 20 | Force | 8.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
i have please with your prediction so far and it shows how may look the team to win and a team that can be lost at a match…..
i have an predict that the reds will take over again the crusader in the final of the super 15 2012
13 years ago
Hi David
I have been reading a lot of your work and I find the Super 15 outcome predicting model most interesting.
I am currently a stats student at Wits University but of basic statistics and I would like to find out how you obtain the ratings for each team at the start of the season.
Are they obtained through regression analysis ? what explanatory variables do you use ? Could the model be improved by implementing other variables ?
Thanks for your time
Andrew
12 years ago
Initial ratings for the year are based on past data. I have data on Super Rugby back to 2006. I use the first few years to get the ranking started, then try and choose some suitable parameter values to optimise the predictive performance.
There is no regression analysis, it is exponential smoothing. The only data used are the scores for each of the games and whether it was a home game or not.
12 years ago