April 25, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.37 10.46 -1.10
Bulls 7.19 4.16 3.00
Stormers 7.03 6.59 0.40
Chiefs 3.28 -1.17 4.40
Waratahs 0.76 4.98 -4.20
Sharks -0.03 0.87 -0.90
Blues -0.71 2.87 -3.60
Hurricanes -1.37 -1.90 0.50
Cheetahs -1.90 -1.46 -0.40
Highlanders -2.60 -5.69 3.10
Brumbies -3.09 -6.66 3.60
Reds -3.20 5.03 -8.20
Force -4.42 -4.95 0.50
Lions -9.90 -10.82 0.90
Rebels -13.72 -15.64 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 30 – 27 2.50 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 20 13 – 23 -4.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 21 14 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 21 30 – 21 20.90 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Apr 21 12 – 18 2.60 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies Apr 21 36 – 34 17.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Apr 27 Blues 7.00
2 Lions vs. Brumbies Apr 27 Brumbies -2.30
3 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Apr 28 Chiefs 9.20
4 Force vs. Stormers Apr 28 Stormers -7.00
5 Cheetahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Cheetahs 5.20
6 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 Crusaders -4.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »