Super 15 Predictions, Week 9
Team Ratings for Week 9
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 8.41 | 4.16 | 4.20 |
| Crusaders | 7.30 | 10.46 | -3.20 |
| Stormers | 6.63 | 6.59 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 2.60 | -1.17 | 3.80 |
| Waratahs | 1.72 | 4.98 | -3.30 |
| Hurricanes | 0.70 | -1.90 | 2.60 |
| Sharks | 0.65 | 0.87 | -0.20 |
| Blues | -0.67 | 2.87 | -3.50 |
| Cheetahs | -1.90 | -1.46 | -0.40 |
| Highlanders | -2.64 | -5.69 | 3.00 |
| Reds | -2.79 | 5.03 | -7.80 |
| Brumbies | -4.31 | -6.66 | 2.30 |
| Force | -4.42 | -4.95 | 0.50 |
| Lions | -9.90 | -10.82 | 0.90 |
| Rebels | -14.68 | -15.64 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Sharks | Apr 13 | 23 – 29 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Force vs. Waratahs | Apr 13 | 18 – 23 | -1.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Stormers | Apr 14 | 31 – 24 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Apr 14 | 37 – 6 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 14 | 33 – 39 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Bulls | Apr 14 | 18 – 32 | -13.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 9
Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Apr 20 | Highlanders | 2.50 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Stormers | Apr 20 | Stormers | -4.90 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Apr 21 | Crusaders | -2.10 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Apr 21 | Waratahs | 20.90 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Chiefs | Apr 21 | Sharks | 2.60 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Brumbies | Apr 21 | Bulls | 17.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »