April 5, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.75 4.16 4.60
Crusaders 6.77 10.46 -3.70
Stormers 5.84 6.59 -0.80
Blues 2.09 2.87 -0.80
Sharks 1.64 0.87 0.80
Chiefs 1.42 -1.17 2.60
Waratahs 1.39 4.98 -3.60
Hurricanes -1.16 -1.90 0.70
Highlanders -1.68 -5.69 4.00
Cheetahs -2.09 -1.46 -0.60
Reds -2.74 5.03 -7.80
Force -3.49 -4.95 1.50
Brumbies -5.90 -6.66 0.80
Lions -9.12 -10.82 1.70
Rebels -15.03 -15.64 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Mar 30 43 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 31 38 – 47 8.20 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Mar 31 30 – 13 2.10 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 31 26 – 29 -3.10 TRUE
5 Force vs. Reds Mar 31 45 – 19 -0.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Mar 31 13 – 23 -11.70 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Mar 31 20 – 17 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 05 Blues -12.60
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 Hurricanes 1.70
3 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Reds 7.70
4 Force vs. Chiefs Apr 06 Chiefs -0.40
5 Highlanders vs. Stormers Apr 07 Stormers -3.00
6 Cheetahs vs. Lions Apr 07 Cheetahs 11.50
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Apr 07 Bulls 6.50

 

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »