April 5, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 6

 

Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.13 4.63 3.50
Broncos 6.70 5.57 1.10
Sea Eagles 5.76 9.83 -4.10
Dragons 4.76 4.36 0.40
Warriors 2.15 5.28 -3.10
Knights 1.75 0.77 1.00
Bulldogs 1.44 -1.86 3.30
Rabbitohs 0.44 0.04 0.40
Cowboys -0.24 -1.32 1.10
Wests Tigers -0.45 4.52 -5.00
Panthers -1.71 -3.40 1.70
Roosters -2.18 0.25 -2.40
Sharks -4.12 -7.97 3.90
Raiders -5.80 -8.40 2.60
Eels -8.76 -4.23 -4.50
Titans -11.62 -11.80 0.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 47.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Knights Mar 30 34 – 22 10.67 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 30 28 – 20 6.15 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 31 14 – 15 8.41 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 31 29 – 20 -13.65 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 26 – 8 -3.23 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs Apr 01 20 – 30 -8.29 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 16 – 17 4.48 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 02 6 – 22 1.78 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 06 Rabbitohs 3.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 06 Broncos -2.70
3 Titans vs. Roosters Apr 07 Roosters -4.90
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 07 Dragons -4.40
5 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 08 Warriors -3.50
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 08 Knights 15.00
7 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 08 Storm -3.90
8 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 09 Sea Eagles 12.00

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »