Super 15 Predictions, Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 7.65 | 10.46 | -2.80 |
| Stormers | 6.23 | 6.59 | -0.40 |
| Bulls | 5.17 | 4.16 | 1.00 |
| Reds | 3.10 | 5.03 | -1.90 |
| Blues | 2.79 | 2.87 | -0.10 |
| Waratahs | 2.72 | 4.98 | -2.30 |
| Sharks | 1.51 | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| Chiefs | 0.23 | -1.17 | 1.40 |
| Hurricanes | -0.49 | -1.90 | 1.40 |
| Highlanders | -2.41 | -5.69 | 3.30 |
| Cheetahs | -4.21 | -1.46 | -2.70 |
| Force | -5.16 | -4.95 | -0.20 |
| Brumbies | -6.42 | -6.66 | 0.20 |
| Lions | -9.78 | -10.82 | 1.00 |
| Rebels | -14.22 | -15.64 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Mar 16 | 29 – 22 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Stormers vs. Blues | Mar 16 | 27 – 17 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Mar 17 | 17 – 19 | 8.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Force | Mar 17 | 20 – 21 | 14.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Reds | Mar 17 | 27 – 22 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rebels vs. Cheetahs | Mar 18 | 26 – 33 | -5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | Mar 23 | Blues | 7.80 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Force | Mar 23 | Force | -4.60 |
| 3 | Waratahs vs. Sharks | Mar 24 | Waratahs | 5.70 |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Cheetahs | Mar 24 | Crusaders | 16.40 |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Mar 24 | Brumbies | 0.50 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Reds | Mar 24 | Bulls | 6.60 |
| 7 | Lions vs. Stormers | Mar 24 | Stormers | -11.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »