March 23, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Sea Eagles 8.45 9.83
Broncos 5.98 5.57
Storm 5.78 4.63
Dragons 4.03 4.36
Warriors 3.84 5.28
Bulldogs 3.02 -1.86
Wests Tigers 2.16 4.52
Rabbitohs 0.57 0.04
Knights 0.15 0.77
Cowboys -0.35 -1.32
Roosters -1.63 0.25
Panthers -3.62 -3.40
Sharks -6.18 -7.97
Raiders -6.55 -8.40
Eels -7.92 -4.23
Titans -11.47 -11.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dragons Mar 01 14 – 15 0.91 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 02 6 – 18 -5.30 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 03 19 – 24 -8.53 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 03 14 – 22 2.96 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 03 0 – 18 14.98 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 04 20 – 26 -0.05 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 04 17 – 16 16.99 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 05 20 – 24 4.29 FALSE
9 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Mar 09 22 – 18 11.56 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 09 26 – 28 14.56 FALSE
11 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 10 12 – 24 3.45 FALSE
12 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 10 30 – 4 -0.99 FALSE
13 Sharks vs. Knights Mar 11 6 – 18 -2.81 TRUE
14 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 11 0 – 18 9.69 FALSE
15 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 24 – 10 9.47 TRUE
16 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 12 20 – 36 -5.07 TRUE
17 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 36 – 12 3.01 TRUE
18 Knights vs. Broncos Mar 16 10 – 24 1.08 FALSE
19 Titans vs. Storm Mar 17 6 – 30 -10.61 TRUE
20 Cowboys vs. Eels Mar 17 42 – 6 7.51 TRUE
21 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 18 18 – 32 9.00 FALSE
22 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 18 14 – 8 10.08 TRUE
23 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 24 – 40 3.42 FALSE
24 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Mar 19 17 – 14 -12.62 FALSE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 23 Eels 0.20
2 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Mar 23 Broncos -0.90
3 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 24 Warriors 19.80
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Dragons 0.10
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 24 Cowboys 10.30
6 Storm vs. Roosters Mar 25 Storm 11.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Mar 25 Bulldogs 7.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Mar 26 Wests Tigers 13.20

 

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »