March 1, 2012

NRL Predictions, Week 1

I will be producing predictions for the NRL this year as well as for the Super 15.

Ratings at the Beginning of the 2012 NRL Season

Here are the team ratings at the start of the NRL season.


Rating
Sea Eagles 9.83
Broncos 5.57
Warriors 5.28
Storm 4.63
Wests Tigers 4.52
Dragons 4.36
Knights 0.77
Roosters 0.25
Rabbitohs 0.04
Cowboys -1.32
Bulldogs -1.86
Panthers -3.40
Eels -4.23
Sharks -7.97
Raiders -8.40
Titans -11.80

 

Predictions for Round 1

I got caught out with the game starting tonight. I thought I had another day before producing my predictions. Anyway, here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dragons Mar 01 Knights 0.90
2 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 02 Broncos -5.30
3 Raiders vs. Storm Mar 03 Storm -8.50
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 03 Panthers 3.00
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 03 Cowboys 15.00
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 04 Sea Eagles -0.00
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 04 Wests Tigers 17.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 05 Rabbitohs 4.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    WarriorFan

    Interesting, where are you initial team ratings from, and what is your criteria for picking a winner

    13 years ago

  • avatar

    Yes, it would be great if you could link to an explanation of the method you are using to make these predictions.

    13 years ago