February 24, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Round 1

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Super Rugby is on again and I will be giving my predictions each week.

Team Ratings for Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to week 1. Most notable is the low ranking for the Reds. They did well last year but were poor before that.

Rating
Crusaders 10.46
Stormers 6.59
Reds 5.03
Waratahs 4.98
Bulls 4.16
Blues 2.87
Sharks 0.87
Chiefs -1.17
Cheetahs -1.46
Hurricanes -1.90
Force -4.95
Highlanders -5.69
Brumbies -6.66
Lions -10.82
Rebels -15.64

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive prediction being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.  Comparing with the other tipsters in the NZ Herald this morning, I was the only one to tip the Cheetahs. That’s because the Lions have been consistently awful, while the Cheetahs actually had some reasonable results last year.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 Crusaders -3.10
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 Brumbies 2.80
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 Bulls 7.80
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 Chiefs 9.00
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 Waratahs 4.40
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Stormers 13.00
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 Cheetahs -4.90
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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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